Revisiting Atlanta's 2020 draft class

In the first round, the Braves dove feet-first into their infatuation with Wake Forest pitching and took LHP Jared Shuster out of the Winston-Salem, NC private university.  

(After taking RHP Connor Johnstone in 2017's 21st Round, Atlanta took consecutive first rounders from Wake in Shuster and 2021's Ryan Cusick. Only Shuster is still with the organization.)

After narrowly losing out on the 5th starter's job in spring training, Shuster finally debuted in April of this year, going 4-3 with a 5.81 ERA in 11 starts. His record and ERA weren't much better in AAA Gwinnett, going 5-6 with a 5.01 in sixteen minor league starts. 

Verdict: If you could do this one over, I think you'd still take Shuster. While there are other, more productive major leaguers still on the board at 25 (Bobby Miller went to the Los Angeles Dodgers just four picks later), Shuster still projects as a average MLB starter, coming in at #9 on our prospect rankings.

Atlanta forfeited this pick when signing closer Will Smith from the Giants in November of 2019.

Somewhat controversial in the regular season, both for being the rare lefty closer and blowing six saves in 2021, Smith still led the league in games finished (60) and was lights-out in the World Series run. Pitching in eleven games, he allowed no runs on five hits, walking only three. He clinched all six of his save situations in that postseason, holding Atlanta's opponents to a .139 batting average and not allowing any extra-base hits as Atlanta won the 2021 World Series.

Verdict: If you'd have told me that it'd cost only a draft pick for Atlanta to get a closer that wouldn't allow a run in eleven postseason appearances, I'd have offered you more than just the 2nd rounder. Absolutely worth it. 

Does the fact that this isn't a picture of Franklin in an Atlanta Braves uniform give this one away a bit? It shouldn't - there's still hope that Franklin makes it to the big leagues, if he can get a break from the injuries. After breaking his collarbone prior to the 2020 season and then missing that year because of the pandemic, he missed all but 15 games in 2022 to Tommy John Surgery that kept him out of action until this May. 

In 94 games for AA Mississippi, Franklin batted .232/.315/.419 with 15 homers and 21 stolen bases. Seen as a power and speed threat coming out of college, Franklin's goal will be to cut down on the strikeouts (he whiffed 115 times in 94 games in 2023) while getting his power to show up more in games, always a tough balance to strike. 

Verdict: Too early to tell. Normally you'd have a definitive answer after three years for a collegiate draftee, but injuries have made it harder for both Franklin to develop on a normal timeline and for Atlanta to evaluate him properly.   

I made the argument on Locked On MLB Prospects last Friday that if you were re-drafting 2020, knowing what we know now, Spencer Strider's probably the #1 overall pick. 

2023's strikeout leader for all of baseball with 281, he's already signed a long-term extension in Atlanta and will be a top five (or so) finisher in the Cy Young voting. After Max Fried's (likely) departure after 2024, he'll be the undisputed #1 pitcher in this rotation and a cornerstone for the Braves to build around for a decade. 

Verdict: Not bad for pick #126

An All-Star in 2023 who was perhaps miscast as a postseason game three starter, Elder's a sinker/slider groundball specialist who excels when he can coax weak contact from his opponents. He was absolutely electric before the All-Star Break, at one point leading all of baseball with an ERA under 2.00, Elder's career-high workload caught up to him in the back half of the schedule and he struggled to a 5.11 ERA over his final 13 starts. 

With an offseason to not only rest but hone his mechanics, Elder lokos to be one of the more qualified #4 pitchers in a major league rotation next season and gives Atlanta some stability in a staff that's potentially undergoing major changes over the next two seasons.

Verdict: You'd do this again, yeah. Getting a major league starter in the 5th is rare in and of itself, never mind one that's All-Star caliber. 

So, how'd they do?

Getting three MLB starters isn't guaranteed from a full twenty-round draft, never mind a five round one (in which you only have four picks). Oh, and one of those starters just so happens to be one of the more-dominant pitchers 25 and under in all of baseball.  Add in the possibility of Franklin making it to the bigs in the next two seasons - I hear there's no one signed long-term for left field - and you've got an all-time class. 

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