St. Louis Cardinals 2024 Over/Under Regular Season Win Total

The St. Louis Cardinals will look to bounce back after a down season as they hope things turn around in 2024. We’re here to share our MLB odds series, and make a Cardinals over-under regular-season win total prediction for the 2024 season.

The Cardinals went 71-91 last season, their first losing season since 2007. Despite that, the Cards believe they can bounce back this season. There are also some highlights from last season.

Paul Goldschmidt finished with a batting average of .268, 25 home runs, 80 RBIs, and 89 runs over 592 at-bats. He is still durable and hitting for some power even as he ages. Meanwhile, Nolan Arenado finished with a mark of .266, 26 home runs, 93 RBIs, and 71 runs through 560 at-bats. Nolan Gorman evolved, batting .236 with 27 home runs, 76 RBIs, and 59 runs while also having an on-base percentage of .328.

The Cardinals will see one particular prospect make some noise this season. Masyn Winn will get the chance to get better in his first full season. Last season, he hit .230 with two home runs, 12 RBIs, and eight runs over 122 at-bats. But the thing to watch was his stole bases, as he nabbed two bags in his first experience in the majors. There is so much potential for more.

The Cards did not stand pat during the offseason. Significantly, they signed Lance Lynn as a free agent from the Los Angeles Dodgers. Lynn went 13-11 with a 5.72 ERA over 32 combined starts with the Dodgers and Chicago White Sox. Additionally, they signed Kyle Gibson as a free agent from the Baltimore Orioles. Gibson went 15-9 with a 4.73 ERA. The Cardinals also signed Sonny Gray from the Minnesota Twins. Last season, Gray went 8-8 with a 2.79 ERA over 32 starts with the Twins. The only player they lost of significance was Adam Wainwright.

Here are the Win Total MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Cardinals 2024 Win Total Odds

Over 84.5 Wins: -115

Under 84.5 Wins: -105

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Why The Cardinals Will Win 84.5 Games

Goldschmidt is still elite. Now, the pressure is on, as he is in a contract year. Goldschmidt still has a 50.5 percent hard-hit rate, so there is still potential for him to hit 30 home runs this season. The Cardinals expect Arenado to bounce back. However, it’s noteworthy that he is past 30 years old, as is Goldschmidt, and the decline could be happening.

But Gorman could help offset this by becoming a power monster. Ultimately, there is so much potential for him to slug for 30 or more home runs. In addition to Gorman, Winn has the potential to be a 20-20 guy. Imagine the Cardinals might give him a shot at the top of the order. Then, he can get on base and be a speed threat. The other possibility is leadoff home runs, which can help the Cards get over even more.

Utility player Tommy Edman is also solid. Last season, he hit .248, had 13 home runs, 47 RBIs, 69 runs, and 27 stolen bases. Lars Nootbar is a good hitter and an elite fielder. His defense might save a few runs.

The Cardinals will win 85 games because Goldschmidt, Gorman, and Arenado can power the offense. Likewise, Winn will make an impact, and Edman and Nootbar will be productive.

Why Cardinals Won’t Win 84.5 Games

The Cardinals knew their weakness, and it is still a weakness unless the new starters pitch to their potential. But the Cardinals also want to see their current starter do well. Unfortunately, this was not the case last season. Miles Mikolas went 9-13 with a 4.78 ERA through 35 starts. While he can bounce back, he needs to throw a good splitter to fool the opponents.

The rest of the rotation is still up in the air. The Cards will heavily rely on Lynn, Gibson, and Gray to save them. If one or two of them struggle, it could blow up in their faces. What the Cardinals need is for all three to pitch well to give themselves a realistic chance of competing.

The bullpen was also a problem last season. Sadly, Ryan Helsley struggled with consistency issues at times. Helsley even lost the closer’s job at one point. In the end, he finished 3-4 with a 2.45 ERA and 14 saves. Giovanny Gallegos is not a reliable option either, after going 2-4 with a 4.46 ERA and 10 saves over 56 games.

The Cardinals will not win 85 games because their pitching still has a lot of questions to answer. Likewise, they still don’t have an established closer.

Final Cardinals Over/Under Win Total Prediction

The Cardinals do not look like a championship team. Instead, they look like an aging team. Despite this, there are still some players to get excited about. Many of these players will be big contributors this season. Their division is not as threatening as it could be. Yes, the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds will be tough to beat. But the Milwaukee Brewers will regress. Additionally, the Pittsburgh Pirates are still bad. The Cardinals could easily go 85-77 if everyone stays healthy. And  we believe that they will.

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Final Cardinals Over/Under Win Total Prediction: Over 84.5 Wins: -115